David Ripplinger, Northern Corn Development
The U.S. high fructose corn syrup price forecast has been completed. The price of HFCS is forecast to decline by a third over the next decade. Key market factors driving this decline include a change in consumer preferences to other sweeteners, declining soft-drink sales, changes in relative prices, and the emergence of new, especially high intensity sweeteners. A financial model of the returns to a U.S. corn wet mill has been built. Preliminary analysis conducted using the model have estimated the impact of changing corn and HFCS prices on plant profitability, operation, and value. Alternative mill enterprises including the production of alternative sweeteners, feed, biochemicals, and other bioproducts have been identified and prioritized. Remaining research will assess the market for these alternatives and their potential impact on the value of a U.S. corn wet mill.