A new economic analysis released today by researchers at Texas A&M University has corn growers raising concerns that pending tariffs on nitrogen fertilizers will create shortages and cause prices to increase even more for farmers, according to the National Corn Growers Association.

“As part of this study, we conducted an historical analysis going back to 1980 and found that fertilizer costs tend to go up when corn revenues increase,” lead researcher Joe Outlaw, Ph.D., noted. “Notably, these prices tend to go up exponentially even after accounting for natural gas prices and higher demand.”

The study notes that the price of one type of nitrogen fertilizer, called anhydrous ammonia, increased by $688 per ton – $86,000 for a 1,000-acre farm – from the end of 2020 through the end of October 2021.

The study has farmers raising concerns about a petition by CF Industries, one of the country’s major nitrogen producers, with U.S. International Trade Commission to impose tariffs on nitrogen fertilizers imported from Trinidad & Tobago and Russia. The U.S. Department of Commerce has since released a preliminary finding recommending tariffs, despite strong outcry from farm groups.

“Inflation has quickly become one of the biggest concerns for the upcoming year on the farm and the skyrocketing fertilizer prices we are seeing is nothing less than shocking,” North Dakota farmer and North Dakota Corn Growers Association President Rob Hanson said. “All at the same time, these companies are seeing record earnings. This undoubtably will result in a ripple effect throughout the farm economy. Harmful to the grower and to the consumer.”

The study was commissioned by state corn organizations in Texas, Missouri, Colorado, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee and Wisconsin.

Read the full Texas A&M study here.